James Montier, GMO. James is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team. Prior to joining GMO in , he was co-head of Global Strategy at Société Générale. In , value investor James Montier, a member of GMO’s asset allocation team, wrote the widely cited piece The Seven Immutable Laws of. James Montier, fresh from a presentation to clients of the $85bn Boston asset manager which employs him, is wearing Darth Vader cufflinks.
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Was that kind of why you changed the photo or…? Only 1 left in stock more on the way. So, James, in prep for this chat, I went and re-read almost every paper I could find of yours, going back… James: Yeah, I think you framed it and this is a great way mgo think about it.
And the second moniter, debt is go huge burden on future generations. I think these days it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been to do because with everybody reading online media all the time, it is very easy to only look for the opinions that happen to agree with you.
As for me, I prefer to leave the party early, in the knowledge that I can walk away with ease.
I think DC used to make really good stories, but they make terrible bloody films. Do you want it relative to the benchmark?
James Montier on Applying the Seven Immutable Laws of Investing | MOI Global
But to me, it is the most sensible thing to do when there is nothing to do, which is I think a good description of the current asset environment in general. The value investing genius who ran Tiger back in the late s and he shut his from down in because he was using leverage and the valuation-based approach. What could go wrong? If a government issues a bond, it will repay it, but it has a very different way of repaying it.
You can look at something like Shiller PE. Quoting Winnie the Pooh: So they either gave the answer of three or nine depending on which set of dice are being used.
So, I think you can do that in lots of different ways. As you look around the world today, are you seeing any U. They cannot be looking at their portfolio and updating their views as they go. The most decent thing my parents ever did to me they said growing up. We are a very research driven organization; so all the portfolio managers are highly involved in the research. While such a bubble can make speculators extremely wealthy if only for a period of time – because putting money into what everyone knows is a ridiculous valuation is not investing, it’s speculation, and as Montier admits ” that the US equity market is obscenely overvalued can hardly be news to anyone ” – it only works as long as there is at least one more greater fool to sell to.
This was a very sophisticated endowment and here they were behaving in exactly the way that we talked about here was cynical. Memberslog in below to access the restricted content. It is the nature of organized investment markets, under the influence of purchasers largely ignorant of what they are buying and speculators who are more concerned with forecasting the next shift of market sentiment than with a reasonable estimate of future yield of capital – assets, that, when disillusion falls upon an over-optimistic and over-bought market, it should fall with sudden and catastrophic force.
When I actually starting working in markets the first paper I wrote was on excessive volatility in the bond markets i. Last August, we were delighted to point out the latest quirk of this incredibly manipulated and centrally-planned “market”: So, using leverage, you need deep pockets and you need a degree of confidence about the path that asset is gonna take, which I think too kind of big hurdles to overcome.
And actually, I used to live in the U. That will be an intriguing one to be a fly on the wall there. Like Montier puts it:. And my boss, Jeremy Grantham, has talked a lot about the idea of the Stalin portfolio. That was a popular belief. Amazon Drive Cloud storage from Amazon.
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And this is my preferred path. Yeah, I tend to agree.
And it has been a real pleasure, Meb. You know, facepalm and… because I just knew where mpntier is going. I just joined Inspirato and I can tell you, they go way beyond a typical vacation rental.
So, if a household takes on debt, it has to repay it, it has no choice, right? Montier still doesn’t think it’s a perfect solution emphasis mine:.
We are now a thriving global community of intelligent investors, connected through great ideas, thought-provoking interviews, online conferences, live member events, and much more. Of course, they could. Thank you for your interest.
So, that debt, when it gets paid, is paid to U. James notes that we now have the second highest CAPE reading ever. If you think about private equity, what does private equity do?
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Join us jamez we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Then you can see it in action in kind of It is pretty much despised among value investors and Jamfs Buffett has often warned against it. So, James, in prep for this chat, I went and re-read almost every paper I could find of yours, going back…. This is a total sideways segue.